SpaceX IPO: A $75B Bet on AI, Space, and the Future of Tech

SpaceX has confidentially submitted its draft registration to the SEC for an IPO, targeting a capital raise of around $75 billion. It would be by far the largest public offering ever, with a valuation that would place it among the top 5-6 companies globally by market capitalization. The debut is expected in June 2026.

On March 21, four days before the news about the IPO filing, Elon Musk announced the creation of Terafab: a semiconductor manufacturing facility jointly developed by Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX. The goal is to produce over one terawatt of AI computing capacity annually while consolidating every stage of production under one roof.

Production will be divided as follows:

• AI5 chips (terrestrial): for AI inference in Tesla vehicles, Cybercab robotaxis, and Optimus humanoid robots.
• D3 chips (space): a high-power, radiation-hardened processor designed to operate in orbit.

Terafab will not be a standalone Tesla project, but rather the core hub physically connecting SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla, in line with the roadmap Musk has outlined for his companies: a consolidation under a single entity that would make the new company the most valuable in the world in strategically critical sectors (assuming antitrust regulators do not intervene).

The estimated cost of Terafab is around $25 billion. Once operational, the plan is to reach up to 1 million wafers per month in a single facility in the United States, roughly 70% of the total output of TSMC (the world’s largest chip manufacturer). The project is extremely ambitious and, in typical Musk fashion, aims to disrupt the entire market. However, Tesla has no experience in semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC took decades and tens of billions to build its expertise. Intel, for example, despite thousands of engineers and over $100 billion in investments, is still struggling to close the gap.

SpaceX and xAI have already completed a merger, driven by the goal of building orbital data centers to support the enormous energy demand of AI development. Though SpaceX generated $15 billion in revenue in 2025, the profitability of xAI, which manages X, formerly Twitter, and the Grok AI system and is currently losing $1 billion per month, raises serious doubts about the overall strength of the operation.

xAI will need to become profitable rather than remain a drag on the other entities. It will play a central role in the coming months in testing investor appetite. The merger with SpaceX, structured entirely as a stock transaction, avoided triggering debt repayment obligations tied to the Twitter acquisition. However, xAI’s debt burden remains a real issue and is arguably the biggest risk factor at this stage.

The June IPO represents the convergence of three businesses under a single ticker: space launch services, the Starlink satellite network, and artificial intelligence (Grok and X). But with more than 10 million subscribers, Starlink is the flagship and main driver of the entire operation, demonstrating a growth rate unprecedented in the telecom sector.

However, investors should be aware that participating in the SpaceX IPO would mean gaining exposure to all three businesses at once. Over the long term, Starlink’s strong growth may not be sufficient to offset weaknesses in the other segments. Given the extremely high valuation expected for the IPO, there will be little room for error. Any slowdown in Starlink’s growth would likely trigger a sharp correction. Negative performance could also affect the Tesla stock, as investors may view Elon Musk’s companies as part of the same ecosystem.

Current macroeconomic conditions, the energy shock caused by the war in Iran, and fears of renewed inflation could reduce appetite for risk investments such as the mega-IPOs expected in 2026. If the filing were postponed to the end of the year, the IPO valuation could compress, provided the crisis does not escalate into more severe scenarios such as a global recession that could jeopardize the entire deal.

That said, this is not the time for excessive pessimism. The narrative behind this IPO is undeniably compelling. If even some of the points outlined by Elon Musk materialize, it would represent a step forward not only for his companies but for humanity as a whole. Over time, we will see whether this narrative remains a compelling story or if something real is truly taking shape.