Technology forecasting should have better tools
Technology moves in waves: breakthroughs, hype, adoption, disappointment, then quiet infrastructure building. The challenge is that traditional forecasting often lags behind reality. Reports are published after the market has moved, expert opinions can conflict, and social media trends can distort what feels important. This is why the idea of a technologies prediction market is compelling. It offers a mechanism for turning diverse beliefs into a live probability signal that updates as new information appears.